Romarcom’s Market Update

Wheat

• There is a delayed wheat harvest in Australia due to rainfall in the last few weeks. The NSW and QSL experienced huge
  rains, while WA remains unscathed.
• WA’s AH numbers are below average, but it is too early to generalize the quality of the wheat harvest.
• There may be a minor quality impact, unless there will be continued rain events in Australian wheat growing states.
• Prices remains firm due to high consumption growth for wheat, soaring high demand of China, North Africa, and Middle
  East (Iran/Turkey) due to dry weather.
• Australian wheat remains to be the most competitive origin as it lacks competition with Russia due to lower crop
  production and export restrictions.
• Futures market has been supportive on the FOB prices due to global tight supplies.

Corn

• The northern areas of Myanmar, particularly in the Shan State, is expected to harvest bulk of the main crop by end of
  this month.
• Thailand, Vietnam, Bangladesh’s demand for corn is coming which may drive the prices of Myanmar corn.
• Corn prices may also be driven by China’s demand when they open their borders and import majority of the corn crop.
• Price levels in bulk and container shipments are at low 350’s level to Manila/Bataan port, January to February 2022
  shipment.

Soybeans/Soybean Meal

• Tight supply of Argentinian soybeans may have been one reason for soybean meal’s extreme price jumps in the last few
  days.
• The soybeans and soybean meal futures have been boosted by the heightened demand for high-protein feed ingredients
  in the last few days.
• China’s demand for soybeans/ soybean meal will be a bullish factor on the prices depending on when and how much
  they will buy.

Container Freight

• There is still a surge in demand for empty containers, combined with bottlenecks and congestions across global supply
  chains.
• The U.S. continues to experience an unprecedented supply chain squeeze, contributing to a shortage of empty containers
  and chassis, longer transit times, and tighter trucking capacity.
• Sailing time of container shipments to Philippine ports is taking more than two months as transshipment ports remains
  heavily congested.

Bulk Freight

• Freights for dry bulk market is on a steep slowdown due to China’s easing raw material demand for Q4 and slowing purchases of coal and iron ore.

Brent crude oil

• Both international benchmark Brent crude and U.S. crude prices have spiked above $80 in recent weeks as post-pandemic
  demand outstrips supply.
• Surging natural gas prices have also caused crises around the world.

Forex

• The upbeat in US retail sales and industrial production data caused the peso to weaken last Wednesday.
• The cautious sentiment ahead of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) Monetary Board’s policy rate decision
  could cause the peso to depreciate.
• Bloomberg’s consensus for PHP/USD is at 50.85 in 2021, 50.50 in 2022, and 50.60 in 2023

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